Planning season is over. Now we pray.
Committing to pipeline targets with confidence.
January has been a wash.
Between 2026 revenue planning, QBRs, first business trip of the year, getting the team clear direction on Q1, a major product launch, and deciding to start jiu-jitsu with my 3-year-old nephew on Sundays (because football, hockey, and Portuguese classes with my 2 sons just wasn’t enough)… it’s fair to say WE ARE UP AND RUNNING.
This is my eighth January as a CMO. Still the same mix of excitement, stress, and hopeful resolutions. Still trying to do it better than last year.
If you’re a business operator, you know that in January, many teams are still going back and forth internally to figure out targets, budgets, and tactics for 2026. Yes, we wanted to get it all done in Q4 but December was all about closing the year strong. Now it’s time to do it bigger and better.
Eventually, there’s an Excel sheet named something like ‘Pipeline Targets 2026.xlsx’ and off we go! 😂
But here’s the catch: Most teams don’t fail in execution. They fail to identify early enough that there’s a gap between targets and the tactics that actually get them there.
They fail to drive cohesiveness from revenue → pipeline → tactics.
In simple words: Are we doing enough of the right things so that we can have confidence we’ll deliver enough pipeline for all our reps to meet quota?
In reality, it’s trickier than that. You can’t just focus on short-term pipeline recovery tactics and forget the long game (pun intended). You need to balance measurable, immediate impact with the less trackable, but equally critical, activities that build a predictable revenue system.
Here’s one way to do it, if you need some inspiration.
Start with modeling pipeline
Say you need to grow revenue 60% YoY. For the purposes of this exercise, let’s pretend you’re a Series A company at $10M ARR.
Step 1: Define where that additional $6M ARR growth will come from.
You’re primarily looking at new business and expansion, while accounting for churn. This is where most teams start.
Break it down:
How much from new logos?
How much from expansion (upsells, cross-sells, seat expansion)?
What’s your expected churn (and be honest, don’t lowball it)?
The more you can rely on expansion, the better. It improves just about every unit economic metric for the business: CAC payback, LTV:CAC ratio, gross margin. Expansion revenue is your friend.
Step 2: Segment by region and product line.
Don’t lump everything into one bucket. If you’re selling in the US, EMEA, and APAC, or you have multiple product lines, model them separately. Why? Because conversion rates, sales cycles, deal sizes, and go-to-market motions vary wildly across regions and products.
For each segment, define how much of your new business revenue will come from:
Inbound (marketing-generated leads)
Outbound (SDR/BDR prospecting)
Channel/partnerships
Do this per quarter. Seasonality matters. Q3 in Europe is notoriously slow due to summer holidays. Q4 in the US can accelerate as companies rush to close budget before year-end. If your sales cycles are 6+ months, you need to front-load H1 pipeline generation to hit H2 revenue targets.
Step 3: Apply win rates and work backward to pipeline targets.
Now you have revenue targets by source, region, and quarter. Apply your actual (or target) win rates to calculate how much pipeline you need.
Example:
You need $1M in new business revenue from US inbound in Q1
Your average deal size is $50K
Your inbound win rate is 25%
Math: $1M ÷ $50K = 20 closed deals needed
20 deals ÷ 25% win rate = $4M in qualified pipeline required
Do this across every segment and source.
Step 4: Go deeper with NBMs (New Business Meetings).
I like to take it one step further and define how many NBMs (new business meetings) you need across each source per quarter, based on conversion rates from meeting → qualified opportunity.
NBMs are basically new unique prospect meetings. The closest standard metric would be an SQL (Sales Qualified Lead), but I prefer NBMs because they cut through the noise.
Here’s why: MQLs are easy to manipulate. You can run pay-per-lead programs, buy contact lists, run content syndication campaigns, and hit your MQL target without generating any real pipeline. The problem? The monetary value of those MQLs is near zero.
An MQL from someone filling out a “Contact Sales” form has dramatically higher value than an MQL from downloading a gated eBook through a syndication partner. But in most systems, they’re counted the same.
NBMs remove that clutter and build trust with sales. You can’t fake them. They’re actual prospects who agreed to a sales call. Real humans. Real intent. Real opportunity to create pipeline.
If your meeting-to-opportunity conversion rate is 30%, and you need $4M in pipeline, and your average deal size is $50K, you need:
$4M ÷ $50K = 80 opportunities
80 opportunities ÷ 30% = ~267 NBMs in Q1
Break that down weekly: 267 ÷ 13 weeks = ~21 NBMs per week from US inbound.
Now your team has a tangible target they can work toward. Not vanity metrics. Real meetings that sales actually wants to take.
Build your quarterly tactics
Here’s where the blind spots usually happen.
You’ve got your pipeline targets. You know how many NBMs you need. Great. But how are you actually going to generate them? (anyone can set targets after all).
This is where most marketing teams wave their hands and go, “We’ll run campaigns” or “We’ll do more content” without ever connecting the dots between activity and outcome. Without ever connecting activity to a clear point of view on what you need to communicate to the market in order to build trust and earn the right for their recall (but that’s a bigger topic for another day).
Whether you work with an OKR system or just simple KPIs, it’s critical to estimate which activities produce what in terms of NBMs; and whether they add up to the required pipeline targets for that source, region, and quarter.
Example:
You need to generate 267 NBMs from US inbound in Q1. Do you have the tactics defined and planned to help you get there?
Let’s say your high-impact tactics are:
Webinar series (3 webinars, 200 registrants each, 10% convert to NBM) = ~60 NBMs
SEO/organic (steady state, 50 NBMs/quarter based on historical data) = 50 NBMs
Paid search (targeting high-intent keywords, budget for 500 demo requests, 15% convert to NBM) = ~75 NBMs
Product launch campaign (email + targeted ads, 300 demo requests, 20% convert to NBM) = ~60 NBMs
Total: ~245 NBMs
You’re 22 NBMs short. Now you know. You can either:
Add another tactic
Increase budget/effort on an existing tactic
Put more weight on outbound or partner driven NBMs
Adjust your targets (if they’re truly unrealistic)
Accept the gap and document the risk
The point is: you know where you stand before the quarter even starts.
This isn’t about creating a rigid weekly plan that you’ll follow to the letter. In reality, the quarter will never play out exactly like your model. Some tactics will fail or get postponed. Others will massively overdeliver. Some opportunities will close at 2x your average deal size. Others will stall for six months.
That’s not the point.
The point is to identify obvious gaps early and address them before the quarter plays out. It’s a reality check that strengthens your plan. It draws coherence between targets and tactics. It gives you visibility into whether you actually have the bandwidth to deliver what you’ve committed.
In B2B, especially enterprise, where you have longer and more complex deals, teams can work incredibly hard but not see any progress for months. Self-doubt creeps in. Anxiety builds. Stress compounds. People start questioning whether what they’re doing even matters.
A cohesive plan drives execution confidence. It removes busy work. It helps you focus on impact. And just as importantly, it keeps everyone sane and enjoying their work.
When your team knows the big bets, understands how their work connects to pipeline, and can see progress toward meaningful goals, even if the path isn’t perfectly linear, they stay motivated, aligned, and effective.
Final thoughts
Every company is different. Every GTM motion has nuances. But the principles are the same:
Work backward from revenue to pipeline to tactics
Be honest about conversion rates (use actuals whenever possible)
Build it cross-functionally (marketing + sales + RevOps)
Pressure-test for reality (seasonality, capacity, historical trends)
Identify gaps early so you can address them before it’s too late
Use it as a north star, not a straitjacket—the quarter will surprise you, but you’ll be better prepared
Before we close, one critical point: None of this matters without good marketing fundamentals. All the tactics you eventually execute within the system described above need to be founded on differentiated positioning, clear messaging, and creativity. Yes, creativity. I feel like 9 out of 10 marketers today are great at using tools; complex segmentation, AI bots, dashboards… but freeze when you ask them to think creatively.
We’ll dig into that in a future post.
If you have thoughts or suggestions on the system I shared above I’d love to hear it. Planning to implementing it at your company? I’d genuinely love to hear how it goes!
PS: If you want the actual template I use, just message me and I’ll send it over.
Have a great week ahead.
✌️